What city is anticipated to experience the greatest temperature change under a high emissions scenario?

Baghdad is anticipated to experience the greatest temperature change under a high emissions scenario due to its location and climatic conditions. Climates in urban areas like Baghdad, which already endure extreme heat, are expected to amplify significantly with climate change, particularly in regions that are arid or semi-arid. As greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, heatwaves are expected to become more intense and frequent in such cities.

Baghdad’s vulnerability is also influenced by several factors, including its geographical setting, which can exacerbate the impacts of climate change. The lack of significant vegetation and water bodies in the vicinity limits natural cooling processes, leading to more extreme increases in urban temperatures.

In contrast, cities like Delhi, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo face different climatic pressures, with varying levels of resilience and infrastructure that could mitigate some temperature increases compared to Baghdad. However, the specific atmospheric conditions and urban characteristics of Baghdad position it to see some of the most substantial increases in temperature under high emissions scenarios.